Yahoo!-o-Soft vs. Appoogle (Microsoft+Yahoo! vs Google+Apple) Part II

February 5, 2008

Last May I was thinking that this was the end game, and now it appears as though I might not be to far from the mark. Microsoft has exceeded my expectations in the cloud since last May when I first thought about what value could be gained if all four giants merged and a new double strength war for user’s hearts, minds, keyboard strokes and money began. Scoble doesn’t understand yet the power of a rich client and a rich cloud. Scoble, people don’t throw 41 billion at something unless they understand and believe that it is a solution to something. Not that I even understand, I have learned the dangers of hubris. (Slowly) The WSJ even thinks Microsoft stands no chance I guess.

Microsoft

You are proposing a value proposition to the many shareholders of Yahoo! as we speak. You are talking to government officials, the one most important thing you are not doing is talking to your customers and possible future customers. You need to make promises for an open future. When you reward customers with value, especially free value, they reward you, they talk good things about you, they like your products when they suck even.

When existing value that is provided by the marketplace is taken away from consumers, your brand name suffers. You can not make your products "valuable" by sucking up the competition any longer. The marketplace in the 90’s was guided by your forward thinking but we are a smarter, more diverse crowd of technologists these days and many of us are futurists, we are rooting that the future is a good one and that the average Joe’s benefit is at the center of every product.

What you need is to have a conversation with your customers, letting them know that you will start supporting open source products. Not sudo-source, stupid source, sloppy source, or legacy-source, open source. I’m not saying throw your cash cows in the fire but experiment with your overlap that this purchase creates. Don’t throw all your eggs and chickens in the same basket. Think of all of those implications. I’ve realized many of them. Many of them require you opening up and letting a the competition have a shot. Your largest gain is the human capital that comes with Yahoo as I said when I first thought about this merger almost a year ago. Those in the valley are some of the smartest in the world. They are all thinking about the customers more and less about the competition.

I mean paint and Flikr combined is unstoppable in the Market. (Just kidding) There is a definite plus side to all of this you know people. First of all it will actually really get Apple fired up about moving the OS space even further forward, it will get the Linux crowed roaring because it further distinguishes Linux as an OS that mirrors consumer needs, and not marketplace power plays. What’s missing isn’t what Robert Scoble is talking about, he’s a smart guy but he has it all wrong. Maybe your mantra could be do the right thing. Stimulate the marketplace, not destroy. Making your products work together best is no longer the best solution because you now are in a position to make the market more pleased than even Google has. Karma is true. Competition is good, complement the competition, don’t call them names, respect them verbally and treat them like good people which they are and when you are all done kick their ass on merit alone.

Build your brand back up, it’s your only chance at long term success.

Google:

Give Steve a call, .Mac still sucks.

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Microsoft + Yahoo better not Kill Zimbra or any open initiative by Yahoo!

February 2, 2008

Microsoft, you need to focus on providing brand value to your users. This is good advice too!  If you want to grow, you have to find ways to reach out to those users who love open source. Many of us love Apple and Google and yes even Linux. It is well known that Microsoft doesn’t utilize very well the open source model (some would go much further in this statement) and I think that’s the best thing Microsoft could do especially when you start talking about the Internet. If you love them, treat them like your kids, give them freebies like Google, and Live Writer 😛 they will love you.

Just a little advice, I want to see you add value to Zimbra, so if you do complete this takeover of Yahoo–it was under a license that even you could swallow (Very conservative quasi open source)–DON’T FREAKING KILL IT!

I love that program, even though it’s a little slow and the license could be more liberal. You can put value on the table and food at the same time! What I mean by killing it is ending the open source development of it. You will find many companies are looking for cheaper alternatives than exchange and if you do buy Yahoo, you’ll have one.

One last thing. I love all technology companies and I know that if they try to help each other and help themselves that is the ultimate model of innovation, or really, just creating constant customer value.

On the positive side, Wow, so much could be done, watch out Google? Hmm, it would be close! You are falling behind Microsoft because your best engineers are aging and you are spread too thin.

If you love it, you will set it free!

January 23, 2008

That’s not the rational behind Richard Jones and the Majors decision to "Set Free" music. Advertising is heavily moving into the music realm and Last.FM isn’t just a place for Music anymore. It’s kind of a music only Youtube these days. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been a Last.FM user for years and I’ve loved every moment of their service. The idea basically presented in Richard Jones Blog is that you can listen to the same full length track or album a full three times before being prompted to sign up for their full service. I wonder sometimes how much Steve Jobs’ arrogance against the subscription model has cost his company. Last.FM and Rhapsody (not to mention the Zune Properties to come) are building full scale music service stacks which integrate seamlessly into the home with devices like Sonos and other new companies on the horizon. If anything this is at least a small move in the right direction of making music a free property in which to up-sell premium services like concerts and other merchandise. I hope this goes well for all involved.

How about iPhone or iPod + Wallet (The United States of Phone & Wallet)

January 13, 2008

I had an idea, how about build a wallet that you can insert and it holds and protects the cell phone? That means it’s less one thing you have to carry, and I never forget my wallet at home. We all use Bluetooth anyhow right? (Pictured is a three fold. You fold the phone side in first and then the other over to protect the phone to the max. What takes longer? Pulling a wallet out of your front pocket? (Were I wear my Wallet) or pulling it out of the clip. I wonder if someone will see this in make it. If you do let me know, I’d be glad to know I made a difference. All you have to do is sell something that is iPhone or iPod related and it sells anyhow.

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Flickr: Leading the Way to the Semantic Future.

January 8, 2008

First, a picture for every place, and now OpenID friendly, Yahoo! is on a role providing a first class picture storage service with all the bells and whistles that matter to their users and people who use it as a service in their mashups. As I have said before, open, isn’t open on the web unless it has URI independence, or in OpenID’s case, FOAF service files. Open ID also makes great use of the VCF format and the XFN. Many more services will enable this in the future, and you can comment on Google blogs with OpenID.

Once you start seeing the vast majority of the clouds largest services becoming machine readable or semantic you can then include these features in open source clients. This will further lead to that sector becoming competitive in the race to create new innovative mashups of functionality. I’m excited to see what happens next. APML (evolution of OPML) will eventually tie in with these services I’m thinking, and we hopefully will end up being the owners of our own data.

Macbook Mini or Macbook touch: Two handed multi-touch?

January 8, 2008

The Macbook mini/touch could be two handed, I have been thinking. Apple has always taken the position of form over function (see iPhone) and so I wondered why you would have such a huge multi-touch panel on the new ultra-thin portable most likely called Macbook Mini or Macbook Touch but I supposed might be called the Nano?

Macbook Nano sounds weird doesn’t it? Mackbook Mini is my guess but I bet that sucker is two handed and contains major upgrades to OSX 10. That is, if this picture from CrunchGear.com is real.

(The Picture on the right shows a smaller (Macbok Pro style Macbook mini with a longer touchpad,)

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There was no second great depression; why would there be another dot-com crash?

January 5, 2008

Much of life is nothing more than a million instances of a flowing pendulum slowly repeating itself; flowing back and forth but ever so slowly coming to a halt. From time to time, new unique stimuli introduce themselves in the form of a new innovative breakthrough, and society as we know it is changed forever and world changes either in an instant, or over a period of time.

Black Tuesday was the result of that society not having a means to protect itself from this unique set of stimuli. The dot com bust era had much in common with the Wall Street Crash of 1929, which led the United States into, "The Great Depression." but we’ve had no second day like that because we’ve implemented preventive measures that prevent the same stimuli from producing the same results. There could always be additional stimuli that produce similar results to "The Great Depression," but it wouldn’t be called the great depression, it would be called something else.

Greg Linden’s "The coming 2008 dot-com crash" does bring the thought to mind though.

The crash will be driven by a recession and prolonged slow growth in the US. Global investment capital will flee to quality, ending the speculative dumping of cash on Web 2.0 startups.

Man, this sounds very ugly. I don’t think it will be so bad but hell, neither Greg no I have any ability to see for sure what’s going to happen.

What we do know: If there were strong evidence to suggest that this was going to happen you would see a mass movement in capital taking place right now, and as far as I know there is not one happening. Could we see consolidation? Sure! But we could also see more growth, anyone read JPMorgan’s "Nothing but Net?" the guys over at TechCrunch did, and the report which I haven’t read yet mentioned that return on the US dollar in 2007 was up over 150% more than in 2006? and we should expect companies to see "34 percent earning growth" in 2008.

Currently, we are in a dot-property value crash, and I sure hope we can climb out of this before we hit the next one. Let’s say that every startup dollar that was in Santa Clara county in 1998 left today, we still would not see another dot-com bust, just like we never saw another, "Black Tuesday." I don’t mean to disagree so much but I think unless there is a nuke attack somewhere, and we get out of Iraq, and things settle down there a bit (I know I’m being an optimist) You will see a little less foreign capital as the dollar rounds off and gets a little bit more heavy.

After I say all of this, I have to think of more reasons to reassure myself this gloomy story wont happen. I’m thinking about all of the eyeballs on the Internet. I know we have a heck of a lot more of the US on broadband now, much more of Europe, Asia, and the monstrous behemoth that is china. The one laptop per child program. We are rolling out eyeballs. Advertisers can’t send a piece of paper these places with their logo on it, but they sure can throw it in a .swf file and have it everywhere faster than you can type Adwords.com

 

Get Well Soon Om Malik

January 4, 2008

Om Malik recently had a heart attack right before new years on December 28th. The holidays can and are stressful for all of us, but I’d like to take this moment to with the best to you and your family Om. I spent most of December either thinking about or being with my mom who was in the hospital. I know how quickly things change when someone so close to you, and how quickly priorities change in these situations. I even declared to my friends that 2007, with the exception of my marriage, was perhaps the most stressful year of my life. I pushed harder and harder on myself, I told myself I could do more and more, and not only at my job all around me in my family life, my extended family. It was the the year of trying to make a difference in so many ways. I get stressed out and I tell myself I wish things were better and then it takes something like this, or something I witnessed on NYE to put things in a proper respective for me. My life isn’t so bad, I have a loving wife and family, I have many friends who care about me, I have a great job and I work for a great company who cares about its employees even though there are so many. It can be taxing to be in the know at all times, I try to do it so much that it stresses me out as well. It’s good that your family is there for you to support you, you are a lucky man, and I wish you and your family the best of a 2008, and if not, at least a healthy one!

Best wishes!

-Jason bogovich aka GeekSpeaker

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Twitter, The Best Human Powered Search Engine

January 3, 2008

Mathew Ingram has noted that you Jason C. said you have to be a player to have a killer app. Then it occurred to me, Twitter is a much better human powered search engine than Malaho. People ask questions on the service and have a multitude of human delivered solutions instantly and one can even refine a question to get a million responses. Surely, this feature will get better and better as the collective IQ of the service increases beyond Jason’s capital.  No offense Jason, your service is really cool but, when you talk about human powered everything needs to be in context. And so with just a few words we’ve solved the Techmeme puzzle of the day, the best way to monetize Twitter, is to subsidize the "answers you get back" with an add or two. That would be original, it wouldn’t be too awkward, and it would be the magic sauce like Google has:

I recently heard someone say that the reason Google does so well is that the user’s provide the data for the advertising willfully, and it’s this data in which Twitter must present ads to in order to effectively moniztize Twitter.

There you have it! Be a player! =-P

 

Huge Multi-touch Macbook Mini?

January 2, 2008

Peter Ha over at Crunch Gear is running a photo that "may be real. "

The object in the picture appears to be the new rumored smaller thinner Macbook with a huge multi-touch interface.

I would go on to assume that even though the larger Macbook pro looking thing next to it has a normal looking touchpad, it is a 2007 Macbook pro and the new ones will come in a multi-touch interface as well, and I would hope that us 2007 Macbook pro user’s will be able to upgrade to multi-touch by sending out Macs in, or at the very least some Bluetooth peripheral?

I think it could be a fake, it looks as though the trackpad’s button is too high, but it could just be the angle of the light.